China on the Boil (Part 3 of 3)

THE FIVE WOES

The key goal of the Chinese Communist Party is control. Until the 1980s, it maintained near total control over most aspects of society, but that has steadily slipped since the early 1990s.

Today Party’s control of a greatly changing society is fragile. The Party knows it, and they are increasingly insecure about it.

The fall of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union was a warning bell for change, even if change means giving in to non-communists. After 13 years of studying the European parties, the Chinese communists opened up party membership, even to avowed capitalists.

Further, the growing middle class, with independent sources of wealth, is increasingly vocal.

With its ideology dead, the Party’s political legitimacy comes only with continued economic growth. An uneasy accommodation between Party and people has held, but the middle class is becoming more vocal in demanding better governance.

The Party’s diminishing control of society and politics is caused by five woes:

Economic, with incomplete reforms, an impatient younger generation, and pressures to change to a domestic consumer-oriented economy. The global economy also poses problems with strict rules of international trade, international product quality standards, and international demands for greater access to the domestic economy.

Political, with no clear ideology, Party corruption at local levels, and no defined means of leadership succession.The Party has given up many of the tools used to control society, especially the household registration system, which tied people to localities and work units. China now has considerable social mobility.

Social, with a growing civil society that allows numerous independent non-governmental organizations to lobby such issues as environmental protection, use of eminent domain, housing, health care, education, and product quality standards.

Cultural changes caused by the globalization of information. Internet, cell phones, texting, and e-mail cause difficulty in controlling new ideas, national and international contacts, and organizational capabilities.

International pressures from a growing awareness of foreign political and legal systems.

Chinese communists have long fought against “cultural pollution” of Western ideas. None of this is good news for China’s leaders, who, above all, want stability to remain in control.

Yogi Berra said, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”

I see four possible scenarios for China’s future that are not mutually exclusive.

Muddling Through. Continuing the status quo with an increasingly ineffective central government regarding social welfare policies and the environment.

Military Dictatorship. An inability of military leaders to agree on an appropriate political leadership within the CCP leads to an outright takeover of the government. China would look very much like Taiwan prior to lifting of martial law in 1987 and the legalization of opposition political parties in 1991.

Rise of political pluralism. Emboldened by an ineffective Communist Party at the central level, opposition parties organize to offer alternative policies for governing China. The political scene, though chaotic, evolves with consolidation of political parties into a manageable few. This system would not be a Western-style democracy.

Collapse and Chaos. With a divided military and an ineffective Party, China’s government collapses. Chaos follows. Different segments of the army favoring one type of government or another enter into armed fighting, with a full-scale civil war following. The country would be governed once again by Warlords.

And we all think Barack Obama has worries.